Ryan Girdusky Tells Us What the Electoral Map Looks Like

CLAY: We bring in now Ryan Girdusky, who we affectionately refer to as a nerd when it comes to breaking down polling data and letting us know where exactly we are headed. Ryan, I’ll start off right here. We had you on, I think last week or the week before last to get an overall big picture prediction of where we were. As we are about five hours away from the first polls beginning to close, what do you think we’re going to see tonight in the House and the Senate, and how is your prediction adjusted in recent — the past couple of — weeks?

GIRDUSKY: Well, I predicted a couple weeks ago that it was going to be 53 Senate Republicans, but they’re going to pick up 239 House seats, Republicans. I’m in about the same place. You know, Bolduc could pull it off in New Hampshire, but New Hampshire is a notoriously strange state. There is a lot of independents, and it’s hard to really gauge. There’s a lot of Massachusetts people have moved up to that state. So, it’s hard. I don’t know. As far as the House goes, I’ll keep it the same, but maybe I had a few different seats wrong.

Maybe they could pull a victory off in New Hampshire that I didn’t see, and definitely a victory in Connecticut that I didn’t see, and maybe one in Southern California that I didn’t see there against Katie Porter, or the seat below her. So, I’m going to still say about the same exact thing. I am nervous about Arizona with this voting machine not working, apparently, all morning. They’ve had dozens of sites saying that their machines either don’t work or partially work, and they’re doing provisional ballots. In Pennsylvania, a lot of rural county…

A couple of rural counties in northeastern Pennsylvania, in a very swing House seat in Pennsylvania 8th, they’ve run out of, apparently, the ballots. They’ve run out of paper and they’re trying to extend voting in Luzerne County, I was just told by a campaign manager. So I am nervous about Pennsylvania and Arizona. And I was very nervous in Nevada since Jon Ralston — who, if you don’t know, Jon Ralston is a political predictor in Nevada and he only does Nevada. He’s predicted elections since 2008, and he has never predicted an election incorrectly since 2008.

And he said that Laxalt was going to lose in the Senate. But seeing how votes are going right now, I don’t know how that’s going to happen. I mean, I don’t see how that’s going to happen. They’ve already raised the Democrats early voting lead in the first two hours of voting in the state. So, I have a very tough time seeing that. Democrats really have to surge at the end of Election Day for that to even — in my mind — really come to fruition.

BUCK: Ryan, we know we had you on recently. You laid out for everybody… I mean, Clay and I were joking that this is like just the talking points that everyone needs at their election party to be really in the know.

CLAY: Yeah!

BUCK: You know, “Well, when the Virginia 7th and the South Carolina 5th and the blah, blah, blah goes, so goeth…”

GIRDUSKY: Yeah. (chuckles)

BUCK: So could you redo that thing for everybody again? But with the latest and most up-to-date information about the early night bellwethers, because Clay and I are going to be watching this live with a lot of friends here in Nashville. A lot of people across the country going to be watching it. What are the things to look for that are going to tell you the trends early in the night?

GIRDUSKY: First one would be Indiana’s 1st congressional, which is in northwest Indiana. It is a suburb of Chicago. It is a very black district. The Republicans have a black female running. Republicans are expected to lose, but if they win, it will be a Republican tidal wave across the country and especially in the Midwest. Then you have Virginia 2nd and 7th. Those are in central Virginia and North Richmond. That’s Virginia 7th, and then there’s Virginia 2nd in Virginia Beach. That’s the district that you guys were talking about a little while ago that they tweeted that the turnout for Republicans is very strong.

They are likely to pick up the 2nd. They are not as likely to pick up the 7th. If they win both, it’s a very good night. And then the must-win House District — first for the Republicans, the one that they have to win — is North Carolina’s 13th with Republican Bo Hines. If for some reason Republicans lose that district, it is a very, very, very bad night. That’s how that’s how critical that district is. That is a new seat. It’s a Biden +2 seat that he won by. But if Bo Hines… Bo Hines is likely to win, but if for some reason something goes wrong and he doesn’t, that’s a very bad sign. So, if you live in that district or you live in any district and you know a bunch of people who don’t usually vote, make sure that they vote today.

CLAY: What’s the most up-to-date right now — and we’re speaking to Ryan Girdusky. If you haven’t, check out his substack, which is the National Populist Newsletter. He’s also the founder of the 1776 Project PAC. Ryan, the governors races. For me, the big three — although I kind of leave Minnesota off the list and I shouldn’t. Minnesota is obviously a pretty interesting race, too. But it’s Zeldin in New York against Hochul. It’s Tudor Dixon against Gretchen Whitmer in Michka, uh, Michigan —

GIRDUSKY: Michigan

BUCK: “Michiconsin,” as I was about to say.

CLAY: Yeah.

GIRDUSKY: (laughs)

BUCK: — and then, obviously, Oregon, amazin’ Christine Drazan. What are you thinking? What are you seeing as of today based on turnout and polls? How are those looking?

GIRDUSKY: So in New York State, first of all, so New York City’s numbers are being shown almost hourly by the board of elections. It looks like minority turnout within New York City is very, very low. As of noon, they had about 880,000 votes early, plus Election Day without absentees. But it’s still 880,000 votes out of New York City is not very many. They had 2.1 million in 2018. I think there probably will be around 1.2 to 1.4 million today in New York City, though the borough that has the worst turnout is the Bronx.

They are abysmally low turnout. I think it’s 11% of registered voters are showing up in the Bronx right now. That is the most Democratic county in, I think, the state, not just the city, but the whole state. Staten Island has had a very good turnout, but Manhattan has had very good turnout. Manhattan very good for Hochul, Staten Island’s very good for Zeldin, and Queens and Brooklyn have had average turnout so far. It just depends on where those votes are coming in from. If they were coming from the Orthodox Jewish and Russian communities in Brooklyn — and a lot of the Asian and working-class white districts in Queens — that’s great for Zeldin.

If it’s out of the more black areas in both Brooklyn and Queens, that’s not so great. That’s good for Hochul. I don’t know those numbers, but the numbers are looking decent right now for Hochul — sorry, for Zeldin — coming out of New York City. It depends what Long Island is looking like or upstate. We don’t have those numbers yet. I don’t think Tudor Dixon is going to win in Michigan. I don’t feel good about Michigan at all. I think abortion being on the ballot is going to be a killer for a lot of Republicans in Michigan.

That’s my own personal opinion. I mean, abortion being on the ballot is being very, very rough. And I think we’re going to look at a can’t situation. It’s literally a provision on the ballot, and I don’t know. And it’s going to drive up a lot of Democrat turnout going into Election Day. And it has so far, and it is Election Day. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but I’m not super optimistic on Tudor, and Oregon definitely has had a bunch of Democrat efforts in the last few days as the third party candidate has lost some support. But a lot of those votes are already in for the Republicans. So, I’d have to sit there and wait to say.

CLAY: All right, so where would you say — and we’re talking to Ryan Girdusky. You said you like 53 in the Senate, 239 in the House. What races out there…? I know you talked about Virginia 2nd and 7th there, and North Carolina 13. But what races do you think, “Hey, this could happen?” Like, Bolduc in New Hampshire would be a big early sign. What kind of numbers would you need to see from DeSantis or Rubio? Florida is probably going to have its numbers out early.

GIRDUSKY: Right. New Hampshire takes a very long time to count the votes as they almost count them all by hand, and I don’t know if they ride horses to collect all the ballots. I have no idea. It takes New Hampshire a very, very long time to count votes. So that will not be an early (crosstalk).,

CLAY: Okay. What about Florida?

GIRDUSKY: Florida will be in early, but you have to look at where, how Palm Beach, Miami-Dade did. If Republicans win those or are competitive in those, it’s going to be a great night for Republicans. But Florida is Florida. They have built amazing infrastructure in Florida for the GOP. The earliest two states to look at are Ohio and North Carolina for the Senate seat. I think JD Vance is going to win by over ten points. He’s going to outperform probably around 11 or 12% against Tim Ryan if he especially wins Mahoning County, which is basically the last white, working-class, blue collar county still voting Democrat nationwide. If he wins that, it’s really like an amazing sign for Republicans in Pennsylvania as well. And in North Carolina, Ted Budd’s gotta win it, but he’s got to win by probably six or seven points to really have an incredible night, and that will carry a lot of lower down ballot Republicans across the line.

BUCK: What are we looking at for total congressional pickups right now based on your reading of the latest polling data?

GIRDUSKY: I would say about 35/36, give or take ten of them. I think that, once again, I’m not super hopeful in Michigan, but I am very hopeful in Nevada. I think it might be a clean sweep of Republicans win every House seat in Nevada. I don’t know if there’ll be a man standing left with a Democrat. I’m also very interested to see what happens in Orange County. There are two incumbent Democrats that have huge war chests that in the last couple of weeks we’ve seen them completely lose in the polls. Then there’s also three seats in Oregon.

See, the problem is Republicans going into this election cycle, as much energy that there is, there’s not that much low hanging fruit left. This is not like 2010 where there were a bunch of Democrats in R+20 seats that were ancestrally Democrat. So Republicans are going to have to win a lot of Biden seats, and that’s not impossible. It’s certainly not impossible. They’re going to. The interesting things we’ll see, are they going to win in Connecticut in House seat 5? Are they going to win Rhode Island 2, New Hampshire 1, Maine 2? Are they going to win three seats in Oregon? Are they going to win one extra seat in Washington, all the seats in Nevada? That expands the map greatly if they’re able to do that successfully.

CLAY: Ryan, what would you say, high in the low end? I’m big on like probabilities and I’m sure you are if you’re breaking this down. You said you think the Senate 53, that would mean basically all of the close races — except for New Hampshire, I’m presuming — breaking in the direction of the Republicans. Is there much high end on the Senate side?

GIRDUSKY: Fifty-four.

CLAY: Do you think it’s possible that Tiffany Smiley or that Joe O’Dea, both in Washington and Colorado — we talked a lot about their cases — would that be a high in like 56, is the absolute apex in your mind in the Senate?

GIRDUSKY: I… (sigh)

CLAY: Yeah?

GIRDUSKY: If you hear an asteroid hitting Denver today, then yes, 56 is totally possible. Before that, I don’t… I don’t see how 56 is possible. I’m just telling you the truth. I think 53 is a lot more likely. And I think that the problem with Washington is Washington is a mail in ballot state. Everyone gets a ballot, and they all just mail it in. There is very little — or close to no — Election Day voting at a poll site. So and it’s a jungle primary. Patty Murray got over 50% in the last election. That just happened a few months ago. So that means a lot of people who already voted for her would either have to be way overwhelmed or switch their vote.

That’s just why I see Washington State being a very difficult state for Republicans to break through. Even if Tiffany as is a fantastic candidate. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? I’m not… I wouldn’t put money on it if I was gambling in Vegas. I don’t think O’Dea is going to win. Colorado is a state that a lot of Democrats who were living in the Midwest and in Texas are fleeing to. I just don’t know. I think Colorado may have sort of gone too far to the left. (crosstalk)

BUCK: Ryan, I — Ryan, I —

GIRDUSKY: — is a possibility, Arizona is closer to the possibility, Nevada and Pennsylvania and Georgia and that’d be 55. But it’s very important to remember: 54 senators for Republicans is not, like, fantastic news for this election cycle, but going to the next election cycle in 2024, there are 13 incumbent Democrats in purple, red, or very lightly blue states that they have to defend in two more years. And if there is a great a presidential election — if there’s a recession, and there’s more problems, and Biden can’t run reelection, whatever the case is — Republicans, there is… If we wake up tomorrow and there’s 54 Republican senators in this country, the chances of a Republican filibuster-proof Senate majority in 2024 is very, very, very possible. So, I hope they get to 54, getting to 56, I just don’t see in the cards. Maybe a miracle 55, but I highly doubt it. I would say 53, 54 is very much reasonable.

BUCK: Ryan If I made you, which is what I’m doing right now on national radio —

GIRDUSKY: (laughing)

BUCK: — pick one upset race that you feel the best about, meaning it’s one that feels like a reach, but you think it’s going to come through. Which one is it?

GIRDUSKY: Lee Zeldin.

BUCK: Nice!

GIRDUSKY: I think if anyone, it’s going to be Lee Zeldin.

BUCK: Love it.

GIRDUSKY: Maybe I’m because I’m a New Yorker and I’m delirious about it, but I’ve had a lot of Democrats that I know say they’re voting for Lee. I just… I feel the momentum for Lee. I’ve never felt this way before in New York, and he’s getting crowds bigger than Hochul. I just have a hard time seeing that that in New York State, that doesn’t mean something.

BUCK: See, Clay, Ryan and I have a fever, and the only prescription is more Zeldin.

CLAY: (laughing)

GIRDUSKY: (laughing)

BUCK: Ryan, thank you, buddy.

GIRDUSKY: Can I say one last thing?

CLAY: Yeah, what else?

GIRDUSKY: Don’t forget: Vote for your school board member. If they’re endorsed by the 1776 Project PAC, please, please, please vote for your school board member. Don’t forget it on the ballot. People oftentimes do.

CLAY: Absolutely go check out Ryan’s Substack, National Populist Newsletter, everybody. Great political analysis year round. Ryan, thanks so much, my friend.