BUCK: We are now joined by Salena Zito. She is doing fantastic work in battleground states to bring everybody the ground truth about what’s happening, the political dimensions and directions, and right before this big midterm election, we know she’s going to have some great insights to share with us all. Salena, appreciate you coming back.
ZITO: No, thanks so much for having me.
BUCK: And SalenaZito.com for her latest stories. So just tell us. I mean, we’re focused in here on a few states. I know that you watched the Fetterman-Oz debate from a bar in Pennsylvania, which is clearly the best way to watch a Fetterman-Oz debate. What are some of the things you’re picking up from talking to people? I mean, you’re kind of a Main Street whisperer as a journalist because you actually talk to people on Main Street of towns across America. What are you hearing?
ZITO: Right. Well, I live in the Paris of Appalachia, so I feel like I’m a little bit more connected to understanding people and reading people. So, I drove all the way across the state to go to the debate. And I had sort of an epiphany. I’m like, “Why do I want to watch this with a bunch of other journalists?” So I turned around, drove a couple of hours back, stopped in a bar, and I just wanted to observe people’s reactions to the debate. You have to understand, while we follow this stuff intensely — and I have been reporting about Fetterman’s condition since June — most voters still didn’t have an idea.
They knew he had a stroke. They saw a couple of his rallies where he spoke for four minutes. It was uncomfortable, but it wasn’t awful. And then they watched the debate, and they were stunned. They had no idea the breadth of his cognitive abilities, not that he has trouble speaking, but he has trouble intaking whatever conversation is happening with him, anyone trying to make with him, and he can’t respond in a meaningful way. And that really took voters breath away. Now, I saw a couple of things happening. Voters have said they’re mad at my profession and I don’t blame them. You know, and not everyone’s brilliant enough to read me every day. But, you know, they trusted that journalists would tell this story and they would know, and they didn’t. And so they’re mad at journalists and they’re mad at Democrats for standing up there and clapping and saying, “Didn’t he do terrific”? and they’re like, “No!”
CLAY: So it is kind of fascinating the degree to which there was clearly a cover up for Fetterman condition and then the fact that they basically blew it. I mean, I’ve talked to a lot of campaign advisers and consultants who say that Fetterman should fire everyone who advises him because he may well have lost his election in that one-hour debate, and it might have been better to just go down and take all the criticisms for not having public debates. How do you see this breaking out? Do you think that we are going to get a Red Wave or a Red Tsunami, or are effectively we still entrenched in the same way that we were in 2020, where there’s about 50% of the public on one side, 50% on the other, and it’s very difficult for either side to make substantial gains.
ZITO: I mean, unless something dramatic happens between today and Tuesday — and that means across the country, something catastrophic happens — I can’t imagine there not being a Red Tsunami. I can’t imagine there not being plus-30 seats, new seats in the House. And you have to remember that that is on top of the additional 15 seats that the Republicans won in 2020 that everyone seems to sort of forget.
CLAY: Yep.
ZITO: There was a red wave in 2020. We just didn’t talk about it enough. And I think there’s probably going to be three- to four-plus Republican… I mean, plus Republicans in the U.S. Senate.
CLAY: So, Salena, what happens then? I agree with a lot of your predictions there. When Democrats wake up on November 9th, they do what as we already start to pivot towards the midterms? Do they say this is an aberration, this is a historical expected outcome? We’re going to redo things like we did after ‘94 and 2010; we’ll still win reelection. What do they do? What is their mindset?
ZITO: I think on fourth, if they were smart, they would look to a candidate like Josh Shapiro in my state and say, “This is how we should run. We should be more about solutions and common sense. We should stop making fun of people. We should stop calling people extremists, and we should talk about things that we can work, about being good managers.” They’re not going to do that. They’re going to say, “We weren’t far left enough. We lost because these candidates weren’t far left enough,” and for the most part, far-left candidates didn’t fare very well in primaries. So, a little bit more moderate Democrats won primaries. So, they’re going to say — you know, in the middle of the country. So they’re going to say, “See? They weren’t letting us. That’s why we lost,” and they’re going to double down. They’re not going to admit they did anything wrong.
BUCK: So we’re speaking to Salena Zito. She’s been covering every battleground state on the ground going into this midterm, SalenaZito.com for her latest stories and posts. Salena, what is the sense you get when you’re in some of these battleground areas? You know, Trump hasn’t been a major part of the midterm discussion on the right, not in the way that I think some had anticipated the left wanted to make him. The Democrats wanted to make him much more of a centerpiece with the Mar-a-Lago raid and then the January six hearings, etc., than he ended up being. But what are you hearing from people in these in these places that Trump’s going to have to win if, in fact, he does run again? Because you may have seen Axios is reporting there could be a presidential running announcement on November 14th.
ZITO: This is probably going to make some people mad, but the people that I talked to who are — most of them are — ardent Trump supporters love him for changing things up and mixing and help galvanize a coalition that he didn’t start, but he was able to… He was the result of, he didn’t cause. Voters look forward. They are… They want someone new. They’re grateful. They love him. However, if you have an honest conversation with a voter, they will tell you, “We’re ready to move forward. We don’t…”
See, voters don’t look in the rearview mirror. That’s why we rarely have people run, lose, and then run again, because voters… It’s like Hillary Clinton. They’re going to lose. They’re going to run again? You’re going to lose. It’s very rare that… Richard Nixon would be the exception. Grover Cleveland would be the exception. But those are about the only two exceptions that I can think of. Voters always want to — are always looking forward, and there’s a nuance there that I think is really important. This does not take away from anything they liked about him. This does not take away from them liking him still. This is about moving forward.
CLAY: So if you were betting right now, Salena, what’s the match up look like in ‘24? Who do Republicans bring out and do you think…? But Buck and I have been having fun going back and forth on this for months. I don’t think Joe Biden is going to run again; Buck thinks he is. What does ‘24 look like?
ZITO: Joe Biden’s going to want to run because his wife’s going to run — want him to run, and his wife’s going to want him to run because if he doesn’t run, he’s just going to fade off into la la land. That’s… That’s just, like, the brutal honesty of that, and I think what you will see come January, you’ll see a candidate like Mike Pompeo and then Tim Scott and then Tom Cotton and then Nikki Haley. These are the candidates that are going to come out and then (crosstalk).
CLAY: You think a lot of people are going to challenge Trump?
ZITO: Yes, and then obviously Ron DeSantis. And there will be a Whack-A-Mole primary contest where some will be out, then they’ll be down and they’ll be up and they’ll be down. But there is a very vibrant, very exciting lineup for Republicans, and I… You know, for Republican primary. And I think Republican primary voters are up to see who can earn their vote.
BUCK: We shall see.
CLAY: It’s going to be fun.
BUCK: It’s going to be a busy and interesting year in politics, and Salena Zito has some big predictions that really align with our own about how this midterm is going to go. SalenaZito.com. Salena, always appreciate your insights. Thanks for being with us.
ZITO: Thanks so much for having me. Have a great weekend, guys.
BUCK: Absolutely